What is the probability that Hans Niemann obtained a leak of Magnus Carlsen's prep prior to their September 4 chess game in the Sinquefield Cup? (Any means of obtaining a leak would count here.)
Background: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/crosswords/hans-niemann-magnus-carlsen-cheating-accusation.html
Resolution
If conclusive evidence emerges, resolves to YES if he did obtain a leak or NO if he did not. Otherwise, resolves to market probability at the time of close.
The market close time will be quasi-randomly extended if there is still ongoing trading activity; using a procedure similar to that described in https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/is-the-sky-blue-resolves-to-mkt. The close time will be no earlier than 10/15 and no later than 10/30.
(The intent is if the market collectively decides for example 25% chance that he obtained a leak based on the available evidence, then this market should end up at about 25%.)
Related:
Close date updated to 2022-10-30 11:59 pm
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@PeterBorah Great question. One I can think of is https://www.chessable.com/blog/fabiano-caruanas-prep-accidentally-uploaded-to-youtube/ (2018). There was also speculation on a Carlsen leak in 2021? And as another related category, in many esports I think news about team leaks come up every couple years - so it's uncommon but not unheard of. So I would guesstimate that an instance of a leak becoming publicly known probably happens once every few years?