Will Kevin McCarthy stay the Speaker of the House through 2023?
Will Kevin McCarthy stay the Speaker of the House through 2023?
234
2kแน130kresolved Oct 3
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives.
The current House speaker is Republican Kevin McCarthy of California. He was elected on January 7, 2023, at the beginning of the 118th Congress, after 15 ballots were taken.
This market will resolve to NO if for any reason McCarthy ceases to be House Speaker before the end of 2023.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEightโs performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (แน) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with แน1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.