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Thank you for this market. You can still bet if he comes back: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/american-politics-2023-kevin-mccart

I set up limit orders at 1 and 2% since Tomek takes a long time to resolve markets for anyone that would like to cash out early. Congrats

looks like they brought it on...

https://manifold.markets/KnowNothing/who-will-be-speaker-of-the-house-on?r=S25vd05vdGhpbmc

KING

@dittopoop Why was there no market for this? smh

@dittopoop Kiss that uap legislation goodbye

Another terrible day to be journalist Matt Gertz on twitter, no relation.

@Joshua Or a really great day

https://www.theonion.com/republicans-stalling-obamas-agenda-by-speaking-moving-1819595219

Republicans Stalling Obama's Agenda By Speaking, Moving In Slow Motion

Democrats charge that Republican members of Congress are preventing the passage of the bills by moving very slowly.

never bet against a small number of house republicans doing something stupid

@HastingsGreer Who needs a 3rd party when you have a GOP this divided

@HastingsGreer I'd bet on large numbers of house republicans doing something stupid over a small number most days.

@HastingsGreer My big learning here.

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/3178675965461-watch-kevin-mccarthy-slowly-concedes-to-reporter-his-speakership-is-likely-doomed?_f=app_share&s=a2&share_destination_id=MjQ1NDQxMjktMTY5NjM1NDU1NjI2MQ%3D%3D&pd=01ez33j6&hl=en_US&send_time=1696354556&actBtn=floatShareButton&trans_data=%7B%22platform%22%3A1%2C%22cv%22%3A%2223.39.0%22%2C%22languages%22%3A%22en%22%7D

WATCH: Kevin McCarthy Slowly Concedes to Reporter His Speakership is Likely Doomed - NewsBreak

McCarthy (R-CA) on Tuesday offered a mixed message on his future prospects when talking to reporters. McCarthy was pressed on whether or not he will actually survive a vote to vacate The post WATCH: Kevin McCarthy Slowly Concedes to Reporter His Speakership is Likely Doomed first appeared on Mediaite.

Scott then asked, “Do you need their help to remain in leadership?”

“No. If five, if five Republicans go with Democrats, then I’m out. So it’s whether,” McCarthy replied, as Scott interjected, “It looks likely.”

“Probably so,” McCarthy conceded.

11 Rs already likely voting yes to vacate, not counting Boebert

McCarthy’s done for

/DanMan314/who-will-be-speaker-of-the-us-house

/DanMan314/who-will-be-speaker-of-the-us-house-6088dbc7a596

See also: https://manifold.markets/octothorpe/will-at-least-20-democrats-vote-or

Will at least 20 Democrats vote (or abstain) to keep McCarthy Speaker of the House? (see description)

50% chance. Will at least 20 Democrats either oppose or abstain during the first vote during the 118th Congress on passage of a "motion to vacate the chair" (technically, a resolution declaring the office of Speaker vacant)? This motion resolves YES as soon as the above condition is satisfied. It resolves NO if: Speaker McCarthy resigns or otherwise is no longer Speaker before the end of the 118th Congress; A vote on such a motion is held, and the YES condition is not satisfied; or The 118th Congress ends without such a vote (on January 3, 2025). (My markets generally do not resolve N/A.) Context: "‘Adopt Kevin or ditch him’: McCarthy’s speakership now at the mercy of Dems" (Politico) "How the far right could remove McCarthy and why his fate could be in Democrats' hands" (NPR) "What is ‘motion to vacate’ – the procedure to oust Speaker McCarthy?" (The Guardian)

The moderate Rs in the house hate Gaetz more than the MAGA Rs hate McCarthy. Plus they have no other consensus besides McCarthy. DJT is the wild card

@AdamTreat Democrats understand politics and vote as a bloc. I underestimated this.