Will at least 20 Democrats either oppose or abstain during the first vote during the 118th Congress on passage of a "motion to vacate the chair" (technically, a resolution declaring the office of Speaker vacant)?
This motion resolves YES as soon as the above condition is satisfied. It resolves NO if:
Speaker McCarthy resigns or otherwise is no longer Speaker before the end of the 118th Congress;
A vote on such a motion is held, and the YES condition is not satisfied; or
The 118th Congress ends without such a vote (on January 3, 2025).
(My markets generally do not resolve N/A.)
Context:
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However, to clarify, a motion to table the resolution declaring the chair vacant or a motion to refer it to committee (both with the effect of killing it) counts. That is, if 20 Democrats vote to table (kill) the resolution or abstain on such a vote, this resolves YES.
If anyone thinks this is unfair and loses mana as a result, happy to compensate for this.