This market will resolve to the person who holds the office of Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at market close. The person appointed to speaker pro tempore (if anyone) does not count for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Duplicate answers will resolve to the one submitted first. Only answers that refer to a single person will be considered, except "nobody / position is empty".
See also: /DanMan314/who-will-be-speaker-of-the-us-house-6088dbc7a596
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ813 | |
| 2 | Ṁ738 | |
| 3 | Ṁ217 | |
| 4 | Ṁ177 | |
| 5 | Ṁ175 |
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@dittopoop It's at market close, which isn't for another 2 hours. I agree there's essentially no chance but will wait until then (realistically I'm going to bed so early tomorrow morning).
I made this market so people can bet on how long it will take them to elect somebody, it has arbitrage opportunity with the "nobody" option in this market.
https://manifold.markets/zzlk/how-long-will-the-house-be-without
@KnowNothing Is there a big difference between dec 1 and jan 1?
My prediction: 10+ votes, and then Kevin McCarthy is elected speaker a second time.
However, I also put some money on Donald Trump, because that might be the only person they could all agree on as a backup.
@SteveSokolowski Why would there be so many votes this time? Unlike last time the Republicans can wait to call the vote until they internally have a winner.
@Jai No, someone must be elected speaker, speaker pro tempore would not count. Thanks for asking, I'll add that clarification to the description.