Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
1
Ṁ1kṀ10Dec 31
50%
chance
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Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, a party to the Collective Security Treaty formally invokes Article 4 of the treaty and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, or at least one of its member states, acts upon the request.
This market will otherwise resolve NO at the close date.
Close date
This market is set to close at 21:00 UTC on 31 December 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.
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