Economy 2023: US Unemployment rate below 4.0%?
43
210
Ṁ790
resolved Jan 5
Resolved
YES

This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.


Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.

Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:


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📢Resolved to YES (Definitive Evidence): 3.7% (CNBC)


bought Ṁ5,000 of YES

@itsTomekK I think this can be resolved
US Dec Unemployment Rate: 3.7%

sold Ṁ1,039 of YES

This update should be around January 5th like the inflation markets.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Seems like there is at least a 6% chance that the next print will be 4.0% or higher, given that it was 3.9% in October and generally trending up.

predicted YES

@riverwalk3
The unemployment rate edged down to 3.7 percent in November
Thats last update this year and it is heading downwards

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles That was an outlier in the previous trend, where it had gone up from 3.4% to 3.9%. The household survey has some variance, but it's clear we're adding less and less jobs each month and unemployment rate is slowly ticking up.

bought Ṁ911 of YES

@itsTomekK 8 December 2023 is the last update before the end of the year. Shows 3.7%
Can this

  1. Resolve now? or

  2. Do we wait for December figure in early January? or

  3. Do we wait for Matthew Yglesias. to say whether he thinks this prediction was true or a fail?

    FWIW I don't like 3, what if he blatantly moves goal posts to claim success or never reports backs?

predicted NO

@ChristopherRandles isn't January number for 2023 data? I would rather wait, but 2.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Shocking 3.7% number for today's report!

sold Ṁ141 of YES

Will this resolve based on Nov unemployment report first week of December, or December unemployment released first week of January?

predicted NO

@wilsonkime I'll try to follow Matt's Yglesias judgement, but my guess is we're including December data.