This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
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This update should be around January 5th like the inflation markets.
@riverwalk3
The unemployment rate edged down to 3.7 percent in November
Thats last update this year and it is heading downwards
@ChristopherRandles That was an outlier in the previous trend, where it had gone up from 3.4% to 3.9%. The household survey has some variance, but it's clear we're adding less and less jobs each month and unemployment rate is slowly ticking up.
@itsTomekK 8 December 2023 is the last update before the end of the year. Shows 3.7%
Can this
Resolve now? or
Do we wait for December figure in early January? or
Do we wait for Matthew Yglesias. to say whether he thinks this prediction was true or a fail?
FWIW I don't like 3, what if he blatantly moves goal posts to claim success or never reports backs?
@wilsonkime I'll try to follow Matt's Yglesias judgement, but my guess is we're including December data.