Will Steven N Austad win his bet against Jay Olshansky on whether there will be a 150 year old human by 2150?
Will Steven N Austad win his bet against Jay Olshansky on whether there will be a 150 year old human by 2150?
Basic
6
Ṁ3962151
78%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
In the below market, I added a year 2150 expiration date for the purpose of benchmarking such questions as this. https://manifold.markets/HarrisonNathan/what-is-manifolds-yield-curve?r=SGFycmlzb25OYXRoYW4
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
91% chance
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
27% chance
Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?
23% chance
Will a human win the annual 2025 Human vs Horse "Marathon" Race?
43% chance
Will Steve Austad become centenarian?
34% chance
Will anyone be at least 140 years old by 2072?
31% chance
Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?
11% chance
Will a nonhuman win a Nobel Prize by 2100?
46% chance
If Steve Horvath were to get in a cage fight match with Steve Austad, would he win?
48% chance
Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?
27% chance