Will average world temperatures exceed average temperatures of the Eemian interglacial 110k years ago, by 2070?
Will average world temperatures exceed average temperatures of the Eemian interglacial 110k years ago, by 2070?
2
90Ṁ152071
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will a new record for average global temperature happen on Earth before 2030?
98% chance
Will the world be hotter on average by one degree in 2 years?
15% chance
Will the world pass 1.5 C average annual temperature by 2030?
91% chance
Will average global temperatures rise to 2.0 Celsius above pre-industrial baseline within 10 years?
17% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2023?
84% chance
Will a erage earth temperature increase by more than 2 % by the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024?
40% chance
Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?
70% chance
Will Earth be at least 2.2˚C warmer in 2100 than in 1880?
68% chance
Will Earth's average yearly temperature be 1.5 degrees by late 2028?
19% chance