🧾 Background

In Anthropic PBC v. U.S. Department of War, Anthropic is challenging a February–March 2026 decision by the Department of War (DoW) to designate the company as a “supply chain risk” under 10 U.S.C. § 3252.

Anthropic alleges that:

• The designation was retaliation for protected speech (its public refusal to support mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons), and

• The government failed to follow required statutory procedures, including notifying Congress with a discussion of less intrusive alternatives.

At a March 24, 2026 preliminary injunction hearing before Judge Rita F. Lin (N.D. Cal.), the government:

• Conceded that its congressional notification did not include the required discussion of less intrusive measures

• Admitted it does not know whether its core “sabotage” theory is technically feasible

• Argued that its actions were justified as procurement policy and national security judgment

Judge Lin indicated she will issue a ruling “in the next few days.”

Anthropic is seeking a preliminary injunction to halt enforcement of the designation and return the parties to the status quo as of February 27, 2026.

❓ Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Judge Lin grants a preliminary injunction in any form in this case.

This includes:

• A full injunction blocking the designation and/or its enforcement

• A partial or limited injunction (e.g., applying only to certain actions or agencies)

• An injunction based on any legal theory (APA, First Amendment, due process, etc.)

This market resolves NO if:

• The motion for preliminary injunction is denied, or

• The court declines to grant any injunctive relief

⚠️ Clarifications

• A temporary administrative stay (e.g., 7-day stay pending appeal) does not negate a YES resolution if an injunction is granted.

• A ruling that remands without injunctive relief resolves NO.

• If the court issues an order that is ambiguous, resolution will follow the substance of the ruling (i.e., whether enforcement is actually enjoined).

• The resolution will be based on the district court’s written order, not appeals.

⏱️ Timing

This market resolves when the district court issues its order on the preliminary injunction motion. The judge has said she will have a ruling "in the next few days", so even though we're resolving "sometime this year", this should be a pretty quick resolution.

Summary of the hearing and six questions available at https://ashtalks.substack.com/p/inside-the-courtroom-what-happened and court filings as they happen available at https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72379655/anthropic-pbc-v-us-department-of-war/

Inside the Courtroom: What Happened at the Anthropic v. Department of War Preliminary Injunction Hearing

The government conceded it didn’t follow the law. It admitted it doesn’t know if its sabotage theory is technically possible.