Market Description

This market resolves based on whether the US conducts military operations in the listed countries between now and January 20th, 2029. The question was created following the January 3, 2026 US military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. For Venezuela specifically, only additional military operations beyond the January 2026 operation count toward resolution.

This market focuses on significant new military interventions rather than routine expansions of existing commitments. The intent is to capture unprecedented, possibly unilateral action by the US, not proxy operations conducted through local forces.

Resolution Criteria

A "military operation" is defined as ANY of the following conducted by US forces:

Qualifying Operations

1. Direct kinetic military action - Any use of weapons, airstrikes, missile strikes, or bombings against targets within the country's territory

2. Ground operations - Deployment of US ground forces (including special operations) for combat, capture operations, or seizure of territory/assets within the country

3. Naval/aerial enforcement operations - Military boarding, seizure, or sinking of vessels/aircraft belonging to or operating under the flag of that country, when conducted within 12 nautical miles of that country's coast

4. Space-based military operations - Any use of space-based weapons or destructive action against satellites/space assets belonging to the target country

5. Cyber warfare operations - Publicly acknowledged cyber attacks by US military/intelligence services that cause physical damage to infrastructure within the country. Cyber attacks originating from the US but not officially claimed by the US government do NOT count unless there is compelling unofficial evidence of US responsibility (such as verified leaked communications from US officials acknowledging the operation).

Exclusions (these do NOT count as military operations)

• Routine naval patrols or freedom of navigation operations

• Joint military exercises with allied nations

• Humanitarian aid deliveries

• Evacuation of US citizens

• Counter-drug operations against private vessels in international waters

• Cyber operations that don't cause physical damage

• Economic sanctions or diplomatic actions

• Unclaimed cyber attacks without compelling unofficial evidence of US responsibility

• Operations conducted by proxy forces (local militias, rebel groups, etc.) even if armed, funded, or directed by the US

Multi-Country Operations

If a single US military operation affects multiple listed countries, each affected country resolves YES.

Evidence Standard

Operations must be confirmed by official US government sources (DoD, White House, etc.) or credible major news reporting from at least two independent sources. For unclaimed cyber operations, evidence must include verified leaked communications or documents from US officials acknowledging responsibility (the standard reached by Signalgate pointing to US involvement would satisfy the question, and cause resolution of the target nation to "YES").

Market resolves YES for any country where qualifying military operations occur, and NO for countries where they do not occur by the deadline.

Additional Clarification Notes

Geographic Coverage

• Denmark includes Greenland and other Danish territories

• Canada includes all Canadian territories

• Mexico includes all Mexican territories

Countries with Existing US Military Presence

This market excludes countries where the US maintains permanent military bases with over 500 personnel or formal Status of Forces Agreements as of January 2026. This specifically excludes: Iraq, Kuwait, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and similar established bases. Countries with limited advisory missions, temporary deployments, or small counterterrorism presences (under 500 personnel without formal basing agreements) are NOT excluded.

Russia and Cyber Operations

Note that while kinetic military action against Russia would be extremely unlikely due to nuclear escalation risks, cyber operations between the US and Russia likely occur regularly but are rarely acknowledged. The resolution criteria requiring either official acknowledgment or compelling leaked evidence means Russia could potentially resolve YES through cyber operations if such evidence emerges.

Palestine/Gaza

Operations in Palestinian territories would resolve this market, as the US does not currently maintain permanent military presence there.

• Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Method Change: This market will resolve to the first nation where qualifying military operations occur (if any), rather than resolving multiple answers. A separate market has been created to handle multiple simultaneous resolutions.

• Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Coordinated operations with host government may be excluded: Operations conducted "in coordination with" the host country's government (like the Somalia strikes) may be classified under the "Joint military exercises" exception and would not count as qualifying military operations for resolution purposes. This interpretation is still being reviewed by the creator.