Will The Book of Dust Volume Three by Philip Pullman be released in 2024? | Manifold

Will The Book of Dust Volume Three by Philip Pullman be released in 2024?

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Dec 31

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Resolves YES if the book gets released in 2024. Resolves NO if it gets released before 2024 or if, at the end of 2024, it still isn't released. The book is on track to be finished before the end of 2023.

Companion to https://manifold.markets/ianminds/will-the-book-of-dust-volume-three-285816ae0b90

Will The Book of Dust Volume Three by Philip Pullman be released in 2023?

20% chance. Previous books were released in October 2017 and October 2019, respectively. The author publicly stated he expects the book to be ready by the end of 2023. https://nitter.net/PhilipPullman/status/1568569449917063171?s=20&t=zOvJpWbTuPP79FShJfOsag. Obviously, “ready” doesn’t mean published…

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@ianminds I am optimistically extending the close date on this to the end of 2024, if you disagree, change it back.

predicts YES

@Eliza Hi, I can't see what it was set to before, but it should've definitely been the end of 2024. Thanks!

@ianminds (3 dots menu -> history to see the change of dates, it was previously 31 December 2023)

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