Will Manifold Markets be mentioned by name in a mainstream news article before EOY 2023?
Will Manifold Markets be mentioned by name in a mainstream news article before EOY 2023?
50
950Ṁ37kresolved Oct 8
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Follow-up to https://manifold.markets/ianminds/will-manifold-markets-be-mentioned-2093146b0ce9
Only resolves YES if Manifold Markets is mentioned by name.
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@Quinn in the market to which this is a follow-up, it looks like a podcast (or transcript) was not sufficient, but a link to manifold was (despite not having the text "manifold" or anything like that).
The bar seems to have been raised in this market such that YES requires a mention by name and the link wouldn't cut it. And in the absence of clarification I think the precedent is probably that the podcast or its transcript wouldn't count.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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