Resolution Criteria

Polymarket has officially confirmed plans to launch its native POLY token and distribute it through an airdrop to users, with the announcement made on October 24, 2025. The market resolves YES if the token is publicly tradeable on at least one major cryptocurrency exchange (such as Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, or OKX) by the specified date. Resolution will be verified through official exchange listings and Polymarket's official announcements. The market resolves NO if no such launch occurs by the deadline.

Background

The token launch is projected to occur sometime in 2026, well after the U.S. platform is fully operational and stable. Polymarket is putting its U.S. relaunch first, and only then will it shift focus to the token distribution. The token is expected to debut in 2026, with 5–10% of its supply reserved for airdrop participants. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)—the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange—announced it would invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the company at approximately $9 billion.

Considerations

Regulation remains a hurdle, as US agencies continue to debate whether prediction markets count as derivatives or gambling, and the lack of clarity could delay the token's full rollout. The airdrop will not allow farming or speculative participation, with only verified and active users qualifying based on their trading history.