MANIFOLD
Will Alex Honnold successfully free solo Taipei 101 today? (January 23, 2026)
215
Ṁ1.2kṀ56k
resolved Jan 24
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Alex Honnold successfully ascends Taipei 101 on a continuous free solo climb that begins on 23 January 2026 PT.

https://x.com/AlexHonnold/status/2002807370452509170

  • Update 2025-12-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the climb is rescheduled due to weather or other reasons, the market resolves NO. The event must occur on January 23, 2026 specifically.

  • Update 2025-12-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The climb must begin on January 23, 2026 PT (Pacific Time). If delayed by a few hours but still starts on the 23rd PT, the market remains valid.

  • Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A continuous climb means Alex Honnold does not come down or receive assistance between starting and completing the climb.

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@traders Updated version of the market:

So glad I only bought No shares

@hrothgar So, we trying again with a new market for tomorrow?

For a minute I thought this market was how I found out Alex Honnold fucking died

@Lovix 😭 the whole time I've been betting on a weather market hoping people don't think I'm a ghoul

@JoshuaWilkes Yep, me too. Love the guy. Wish him well. He does shit I would only dream about.

What happened to move it from 75 to 90?

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@Eliza This is a market about the weather in Taipei. Always has been.

@EvanDaniel I wish I would have known that. I do like Alex and weather. But climbing a building seemed monotonously boring. What was the weather update? High winds?

@parhizj it's raining here

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 4% order

@parhizj Did you not find the market until just now, or just not realize that it was secretly a weather market?

@EvanDaniel both, but mainly the latter, but specifically I didn’t anticipate there would be a day specific market like this

What exactly counts as "continuous"?

@asdf0ZQUz he doesn't come down or have assistance between starting the climb and completing it

Prediction: People are going to fly drones to mess him up to win real money market bets.

boughtṀ1,000NO

@freddie just why

@MachiNi could be insider trading

@Eliza could be!

bought Ṁ50 YES

Weather forecast looks safe for the 23rd

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