Resolves YES if Alex Honnold successfully ascends Taipei 101 on a continuous free solo climb that begins on 23 January 2026 PT.
https://x.com/AlexHonnold/status/2002807370452509170
Update 2025-12-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the climb is rescheduled due to weather or other reasons, the market resolves NO. The event must occur on January 23, 2026 specifically.
Update 2025-12-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The climb must begin on January 23, 2026 PT (Pacific Time). If delayed by a few hours but still starts on the 23rd PT, the market remains valid.
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https://www.climbing.com/news/alex-honnold-taipei-101-live-free-solo/
No clear answers on how near the top he plans, or what the weather plans are.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taipei
@jknowak I'm assuming it's "whatever the announced plan is" but I don't actually know what that is! My best guess is the floors, not the spire, based on the Netflix article below.
@jknowak +1 to Evan. If there is an advertised plan/goal, then that will be the resolution criteria; otherwise, it's a success if Alex Honnold considers it a success
“The movement is a little different in that buildings are much more repetitive; it’s just the same movement patterns over and over. So that also means that, in general, buildings are a little bit less tricky. It’s not like you’re going to forget one of the key footholds or something, whereas on rock faces sometimes it’s hard to remember exactly how to climb something.
On a building, you know how to climb it, but it’s physically more taxing because you’re doing the same thing over and over, so your muscles get tired.”
@hrothgar I think the close date should be updated to shortly before his intended start time, or after if you want live trading during the event.
@JimHays personally I think that is the more interesting version of this question but you should get confirmation from the market creator before betting too much.
@JimHays Correct, a rain check resolves NO. I made the market with that in mind. If it gets rescheduled there'll be another market.
@hrothgar And no word games about the date right? He’ll be doing it on the 24th local time but the 23rd in the US. This is about the US date?
@JimHays Correct, no word games. I'll add this to the description above:
"Resolves YES if Alex Honnold successfully ascends Taipei 101 on a continuous free solo climb that begins on 23 January 2026 PT."
So if it's delayed by a couple of hours for some reason, the market is still on.