Any external interference, such as might be attempted to win a real money prediction market bet.
Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Interference counts whether or not it is successful at preventing the climb from succeeding
The creator will not trade in this market
Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market will track the actual solo attempt whenever it happens (not bound by the original close date)
If the event is cancelled entirely:
Resolves Yes if cancellation is due to expected interference and publicly announced
Resolves No if cancelled for mundane reasons (e.g., Honnold's decision, building owners changing minds)
Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the climb is cancelled for mundane reasons (e.g., Honnold's decision, building owners changing their minds), the market will resolve No (not N/A), because if there is no climb, no one interfered with it.
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@DanzoAlerantos Depends whether the cloudseeding plane is also towing a banner advertisement for Polymarket.
I of course knew I needed to specify what happens with dates, but as this is more about interference than success, this market will track his actual solo attempt whenever that happens.
If the event is cancelled entirely, resolves Yes if that cancellation is because of expected interference and that is publicly announced at the time, resolves No if it is cancelled for more mundane reasons like Honnold deciding not to do it or the building owners changing their minds.
@EvanDaniel My apologies for not getting that in the original description text, it should have been there.
@EvanDaniel I don't think "no" is a fair resolution if canceled for mundane reasons, n/a seems more appropriate
@Bandors If there is no climb, no one interfered with it. (Unless the interference is before the climb, and causes the cancellation.)
This market will not resolve n/a, for all the usual reasons that it is bad to resolve things n/a.
@EvanDaniel "Will anyone interfere with Alex Honnold's Taipei 101 free solo?"
Cancellation means the referenced event didn't occur, so 'will anyone interfere' never became answerable.
@Bandors If the climb doesn't happen, then no one interfered with it; also all such climbs were interfered with.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuous_truth
If you don't like it, you're welcome to make your own market, and you're not required to bet, but this is the end of this discussion as regards the specifics of this market: it will not resolve n/a under any circumstances.
If Manifold implements a first class n/a mechanism, I will absolutely use it, and this market would be a fine case to specify that. Ternary Y/N/underlying doesn't happen by close is a fine way to structure a market and I look forward to writing markets with it. But for now, this is my market and it will resolve in this way.