Market will resolve based on the prevailing interpretation of any existing Trump's comments on catastrophic risks from advanced AI.
"More pessimistic" = Based on his statements, Trump will seem to take AI x-risk more seriously than Biden
"Mixed or unclear position" = it won't be possible to reasonably judge in which direction he positions himself in relation to Biden, e. g. because his statements will be contradictory
"No position" = he doesn't say anything that could be interpreted as a position on the danger of AI x-risk
1,000
3.00"(smiling) There are those people who think it's gonna take over the human race."
I would still count this as "no position" https://x.com/jam3scampbell/status/1801441008565293199
I count this as "no position on x-risk" https://twitter.com/JackStr42679640/status/1731276171718041668
Republicans and Trump supporters seem most concerned about AI x-risk (themes of AI surveillance, job loss & the digital corporations ruling over us) https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-supporters-christians-most-concerned-ai-threat-humanity-poll-2023-5 https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2022/03/17/how-americans-think-about-artificial-intelligence/
Trump did sign a plan for safe AI, however it's not clear how it compares to Biden's future plan. "[Trump's plan proposed to] maintain approaches for the safe and trustworthy creation and adoption of new AI technologies without stifling innovation." Trump's rivalry with China & businessmen mindset could intensify the fear of stifling innovation https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/ai/ai-american-values/
His advisers wanted to defend Taiwan, if this is credible https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/donald-trumps-former-national-security-adviser-calls-for-closer-ties-with-taiwan/article66792480.ece
Other considerations that could turn up both ways: His ex-relationship with Peter Thiel, Musk's endorsement of DeSantis, conservative critiques of wokeness of GPT (→ distrust of Altman), Trump's conspiracy mindset
