[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 6: What will white play?
9
9
resolved Mar 18
44%
Bd3
0.0%
Bd5
1.7%
Bxd5
40%
Bb5
0.8%
d4
0.1%
Resign1
0.1%
Resign2
0.1%
Resign3
4%
Qe2

What will white (Manifold) play in move 6?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5


For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.

The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

The moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" are legal moves (but will not be legal in future moves!)

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ91
2Ṁ5
3Ṁ2
4Ṁ0
Sort by:

@harfe your random number is: 996777013

Salt: x9WC9YwTzXgrtn2KfS4w, round: 2788371 (signature b499d7c99409d6d28aedea61f47606514cfcbe85c09b7aadeb66bdd9c720c83f6230592f0449eeed50ed98d5062b390801a81e5a379d0896d2b14a9a729107d96342617e13609f97160722e52de323f0e35c2a348b816b4a2879b91c4cf28c85)

again in the least likely 10% of outcomes...

Looks like Bd3, Qe2, Resign1.

@harfe https://pastebin.com/SvdYCLxc can someone confirm the hash and that it is Bd3, Qe2, Resign1?

😵💩

@FairlyRandom 999999956

@harfe you asked for a random integer between 1 and 999999956, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2788369 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2788371, salt: x9WC9YwTzXgrtn2KfS4w.

Moves by average probability:

0.491443 Bd3

0.330149 Bb5

0.048915 Qe2

0.021165 Bxd5

0.009690 d4

0.002271 Resign1

0.002259 Resign2

0.002248 Resign3

0.000000 Bd5 (removed)

pick a number between 1 and 999999956 (inclusive)

Outcomes by integer range:

[ 1-553395884] Bd3, Bb5

[553395885-690771164] Bd3, Bb5, Qe2

[690771165-761520118] Bd3, Qe2

[761520119-819911150] Bd3, Bb5, Bxd5

[819911151-858508251] Bb5, Qe2

[858508252-888807477] Bd3, Bxd5

[888807478-915362102] Bd3, Bb5, d4

[915362102-999999956] other

Hash of the complete table:

aa39e0aee7a93fbc278252e235925b666a5cc8d3d99e0e1a58e1d8955935ae

answered
Bb5

@jack this the probably the worst of these candidates if SF

3 plays it right, but I really like the audacity of it. Definitely the most fun!

answered
d4

@jack this and Qe2 far from optimal but gets us off the friggin’ book quicker (SF3 played perfect so far). This slightly better than Qe2.

answered
Resign1

Last chance! 😆