Will half of Proof School students use Manifold Markets by the end of the school year?

362

Ṁ8.2K

Ṁ590

resolved May 2

Resolved

YES

ALL

This will be judged by the number of students who are both members of the "Manifold Markets" google chat and have Manifold Markets accounts.

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bought Ṁ200 of YES

56 Added, 5 Invited, 2 Ex-Proofniks. 59>117/2=58.5. Resolves yes!

bought Ṁ60 of NO

so you're saying if i left the google chat...
also will this resolve anytime it hits 59 proofniks, or at close?

predicted NO

@KyleWan also I would like to note that the # of members in the google chat is 51 (excluduing "invited", which does not add to the "member" count AHEM jacob AHEM AHEM) and excluding the people who may not have manifold accounts. So by the criteria, maximum is 51/59 for now...

predicted YES

@KyleWan Hannah told me “invited” counted

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@Conflux but you do have to subtract the two ex-proofniks on the chat

@Conflux yeah man i hate those ex-proofniks, smh making this market so much more difficult

bought Ṁ0 of YES

currently 50-2+6 = 54/59

bought Ṁ10 of NO

you said will half not will at least half. there is a very small chance that exactly half of the students will.

@ElizabethYing Well no, since I didn't say that the other half doesn't use manifold

predicted YES

@ElizabethYing Currently we have an odd number of students. But yeah, if we, for example, lose a student and have exactly half, I expect this to resolve YES

What is a Proof School?

predicted NO

@jknowak it's a middle/high school where @Conflux has somehow convinced something like a third of the student body into joining manifold

Currently the google chat is at 37 out of 117 students, with 59 needed for half. The 37 includes exactly two ex-Proofniks, I think? There are also a handful of Proofniks on Manifold but not the group chat.