Will there be a new major LLM released by OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2024?

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Ṁ7096

resolved Dec 5

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YES

ALL

Models that would count:

GPT-5, o1 (not preview), Claude 3.5 Opus, Claude 4.0 Sonnet

Models that would not count: GPT-4o-12-2024, Claude-3.5 Sonnet-12-2024

I will decide ambiguous models how I see fit.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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That resolved a lot quicker than I expected.

OpenAI on X: "OpenAI o1 is now out of preview in ChatGPT. What’s changed since the preview? A faster, more powerful reasoning model that’s better at coding, math & writing. o1 now also supports image uploads, allowing it to apply reasoning to visuals for more detailed & useful responses. https://t.co/hrLiID3MhJ " / X

https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1864328928267259941

bought Ṁ50 YES

Based on the information available, it seems likely that OpenAI will release their full o1 model before 2025. OpenAI has already released previews of the o1 model, such as o1-preview and o1-mini, in September 20242. The full version is expected to be released sometime this year.

What are people thinking? I think there’s a good chance of o1 by the end of the year, the rest seem pretty unlikely to me.

bought Ṁ250 YES

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