Will Europe be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI or Google at the end of 2024?
70
7.7k
2025
22%
chance

Resolves YES if a European model surpasses the top models of any of the two companies on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard on the day of Dec 31, 2024.

Retrieval/search/agents-augmented does not count. (So Bard will be excluded)

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bought Ṁ10 YES

Buying YES for Mistral.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Deepmind made Google Gemini. Deepmind is in London.

Also, Mistral is French.

@GordanKnott Deepmind is integrated with Google Brain. I have to make it clear: whatever Google Deepmind makes does not count as Europe.

@Sss19971997 even though it's made in Europe by Europeans. 👍

@GordanKnott https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.11805

most of the authors of the Gemini paper are based in the US.

@FedorShabashev Did you actually count the ~1000 authors?

@ArielKwiatkowski I randomly sampled

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