Will Europe be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI or Google at the end of 2024?
81
1kṀ11kresolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if a European model surpasses the top models of any of the two companies on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard on the day of Dec 31, 2024.
Retrieval/search/agents-augmented does not count. (So Bard will be excluded)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ286 | |
| 2 | Ṁ284 | |
| 3 | Ṁ120 | |
| 4 | Ṁ119 | |
| 5 | Ṁ97 |
People are also trading
❓ Which AI model will lead the LLM race by the end of 2025?
Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
80% chance
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?
60% chance
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?
76% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
70% chance
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat a FIDE grandmaster in chess by the end of 2028?
63% chance
In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?
65% chance
There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027
17% chance
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 YES
Deepmind made Google Gemini. Deepmind is in London.
Also, Mistral is French.
@GordanKnott Deepmind is integrated with Google Brain. I have to make it clear: whatever Google Deepmind makes does not count as Europe.
@GordanKnott https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.11805
most of the authors of the Gemini paper are based in the US.
People are also trading
Related questions
❓ Which AI model will lead the LLM race by the end of 2025?
Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
80% chance
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?
60% chance
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?
76% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
70% chance
Will an LLM from OpenAI beat a FIDE grandmaster in chess by the end of 2028?
63% chance
In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?
65% chance
There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027
17% chance