When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM?
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33
Ṁ24k2027
50%
2024
23%
January-April 2025
11%
May-August 2025
8%
September-December 2025
7%
2026+
Mostly self-explanatory.
A new version existing model with a larger context window won’t count.
To count as more capable, the LLM should be able to be better across benchmarks relevant to capabilities while not performing worse on some benchmarks relevant to capabilities.
In the previous iteration, GPT-4o didn’t count; o1-preview did count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@wrhall available in api or chatgpt counts, even if only for a selection of users from the general public; available invite-only to enterprise doesn’t count
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