Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?

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resolved Jan 1

Resolved

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A while ago there was a big international journalistic investigation of "team Jorge", an Israeli company specializing in all kinds of hacking and misinformation. They have a fake user platform with LLM capabilities. Allegedly, it's been used by state actors to generate misinformation targeting their opponents. Here are articles in Hebrew saying this but this was published in many other newspapers, including The Guardian. Does this qualify? https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/security/2023-02-15/ty-article-magazine/.highlight/00000186-49ad-d80f-abff-6bad73650000?utm_source=App_Share&utm_medium=Android_Native&utm_campaign=Share https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/security/2023-02-15/ty-article-magazine/.highlight/00000186-49ac-d80f-abff-6baca72e0000?utm_source=App_Share&utm_medium=Android_Native&utm_campaign=Share [link preview]

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https://freedomhouse.org/article/new-report-advances-artificial-intelligence-are-amplifying-crisis-human-rights-online [link preview]

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So this guy claims to be working for the Israeli government: https://jewishinsider.com/2023/10/hananya-naftali-spokesman-israeli-government-war/ [link preview]His Twitter account has been using LLM-generated images such as this one to spread propaganda: https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1715416552047059366 Of course it obviously follows that the Arabic within those messages has been generated with an LLM as a message rather than something like Google translate or a person.

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Is it good enough to resolve? https://archive.is/pTa21

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I hope everyone betting here has figured this out already - The reason this hasn't resolved yet is not because there are no LLMs being used for propaganda, it's because you need to, at least with a reasonable level of evidence 1. Tie the propaganda to a government. 2. Show that it is AI-generated. Turns out that demonstrating (and I'm not even saying proving because nothing came close to that level of evidence) either is difficult, and demonstrating both is so difficult that nobody managed to do so yet.

Edit: Start here, I think the Russian use is more extensive and more misleading https://www.newsguardtech.com/special-reports/exclusive-ai-chatbots-advancing-russian-disinformation/ This is visible use of ChatGPT on RTnews, a well-known Russian government propaganda source. Original It's over: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202304/12/WS643611ffa31057c47ebb9ab3.html ✅ Website is run by the Chinese department of propaganda ✅ Video literally shows ChatGPT as source If this is not it, I don't know what is. Also cited in this report: https://www.newsguardtech.com/special-reports/ai-tracking-center/ More detailed report: https://www.newsguardtech.com/special-reports/beijing-chatgpt-advances-biolabs-disinformation-narrative/

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Could've been using it in 2022 or 2021 also for example, but the discovery of specifically using LLMs for specifically generating propaganda messages happens in 2023.

Articles shared:

Elusive Ernie: China’s big chatbot problem
1. Link to the BBC article
2. How to use Baidu Ernie bot?
3. License to operate?
4. ❌
AI Chatbots Are Learning to Spout Authoritarian Propaganda
1. Link to the Wired article
2. ❌
China Ramps up AI-powered Campaign Against Taiwan
1. Link to the Geopolitics article
2. ❌
Nation state threads report
1. Link to Microsoft report
2. Page 69 is recommended
3. ❌
Suspected Chinese operatives using AI generated images to spread disinformation among US voters, Microsoft says
1. Link to CNN article
2. ❌
Synthesia stuff
1. Link
2. Some Finnish thing
3. Finnish thing 2
4. ❌
FreedomHouse
1. Report
2. Report
3. ❌
Team jorge
1. Report by Forbes.
2. Article 1
3. Article 2
4. Qualifies? ❌
Israeli claim
1. Report
2. Twitter
3. ❌
U.S. Tries New Tack on Russian Disinformation: Pre-Empting It
1. NYT article
2. ❌
ChatGPT is a Russian propaganda “consumer”: how do we fight it?
1. Cadem article
2. ❌
How Generative AI Is Boosting Propaganda, Disinformation
1. Gov Tech article
2. ❌
FBI’s Wray says AI has been used to amplify ‘terrorist propaganda’
1. Link to article by The Hill
2. ❌
China Sows Disinformation About Hawaii Fires Using New Techniques
1. Link to NYT article
2. ❌
Possible Israel's war crimes
1. Evidence
2. ❌
‘Deep-faked’ IDF Soldiers and Spoofed Websites: Sophisticated Russian Campaign Pushes Gaza Disinformation
1. Link
2. Qualifies? ❌
How the Rise of AI fake news is creating a misinformation superspreader
1. Link
2. Qualifies?
3. ❌
Tracking AI-enabled Misinformation: 614 ‘Unreliable AI-Generated News’ Websites (and Counting), Plus the Top False Narratives Generated by Artificial Intelligence Tools
1. Link
2. Qualifies?
3. ❌
Jailed Pakistani Ex-PM Delivers Rare AI-Crafted Speech to Online Election Rally
1. Link
2. Qualifies?
3. ❌
NewsGuard Exclusive: Russian State Media Uses AI Chatbot Screenshots to Advance False Claims
1. Link
2. Article used: Why are US-controlled biolabs scattered around China's neighboring countries?
  1. Link
3. Also covered in: NewsGuard Exclusive: Beijing Deploys ChatGPT to Advance 'Biolabs' Disinformation Narrative - NewsGuard (Link)
4. ❌

I am yet to go through several of the articles shared above. I will be adding my notes for why a particular article does not constitute evidence for this market, or share my thoughts for why it might. I will be marking the evidence as