Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages? (4500M subsidy)
closes Dec 31

Could've been using it in 2022 or 2021 also for example, but the discovery of specifically using LLMs for specifically generating propaganda messages happens in 2023.

Gary marcus seems to think so

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AdamK avatar
AdamKpredicts YES

Not an LLM, but AI image generation being used by China for propaganda shows that nation states are very willing to use this tech wherever possible. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/us/politics/china-disinformation-ai.html

DaveK avatar
Dave Kbought Ṁ100 of YES

Nation-states read the same internet as everyone else, there's going to be a project manager that tries this, and there's plenty of people incentivized to find it and catch it before EOY 2023.

Believe with 98%+ confidence that this is really just a market on catching the behavior, not whether it happened from the omniscient viewpoint.

3 replies
ShadowyZephyr avatar

@DaveK I think it probably happened as well. Catching it is the difficult part.

Lewton avatar
Lewtonpredicts YES

@DaveK I don't think anyone disagrees here

DaveK avatar
Dave Kpredicts YES

@Lewton Good! It wasn't actually clear to me that was the case, and running a separate conditional prediction market for that seemed, uh, over-engineered.

uair01 avatar
uair01bought Ṁ10 of YES

Baseline update:

Suspected Chinese operatives have used images made by AI to mimic American voters online in an attempt to spread disinformation and provoke discussion on divisive political issues as the 2024 US election approaches, Microsoft analysts warned

Mira avatar
Mira 🍎bought Ṁ500 of NO

@Shump I'm reading that it generates fake messages, but is the model known? It has to be one of those transformer-style 1 billion+ parameter "large language models" as opposed to something old-school that generates the messages using a grammar and some templates.

They probably bought a dedicated GPT-4 instance by now, but not sure if this is confirmation of being an LLM specifically.

Shump avatar

@Mira I remember qatching a video version of this report where they showed team Jorge boasting about their newly added LLM capabilities. It used to be something simpler but they upgraded to something like GPT. Let me look for it.

ShadowyZephyr avatar
𝐒𝕙𝕒𝕕𝕠𝕨𝕪𝐙𝕖𝕡𝕙𝕪𝕣bought Ṁ100 of YES

@Shump I haven’t read the articles. Might count if you can prove a nation state was using the LLM part.

You'd have to prove
1. A NATION STATE (not a particular company/candidate) is one of their clients
2. That nation state was using the LLM capabilities of Team Jorge (they offer many other services)
So this does increase the baseline, but it on its own does not mean the market will resolve YES.

Shump avatar

@Shump I couldn't find the video where they mention LLMs, but I'm pretty sure it exists. I only managed to find the Guardian version where they clip just before that and then just vaguely mention "AI". Anyways, I don't think this resolves yes because there's no direct evidence of nation states using the product. It seems to be used by politicians and oligarchs.

However, I think story shows that this is very possible. Perhaps they don't, but team Jorge could be working with nation states. The technology exists, the will exists. It's just a matter of time. I'm like 95% confident that this already happened, we just dpn't know about it. However, there's a significant chance that we won't know this year.

firstuserhere avatar

@Shump sounds reasonable. the end of 2024 question is trading at 92% currently

Ramble avatar
Ramblebought Ṁ40 of YES

@BTE note that the question is about LLMs, this is image generation.

ShadowyZephyr avatar

@Ramble The way it was used is also very different than what I imagine would be required here. They used an AI generated image as a background and then manually put text over it and wrote messages. They did not actually automate anything. It's like hiring an artist to make a background for you, except it's an AI.

I think if you ask an LLM "how do i write propaganda give an example" and then use it's advice to write something similar, that shouldn't count. It has to be the LLMs exact words. And I'm not sure it should even count if it's only one specific message (plural is implied in the title, and I feel like it needing to be actual automation is debatably within the spirit of the market too).

firstuserhere avatar

Given that 2024 is a US election year

1 reply
CromlynGames avatar
Patrick Barrybought Ṁ25 of YES

@firstuserhere definitely a disconnect between those markets, (or American myopia)

HartTraveller avatar
Hart Traveller

What is the qualification for whether this is "known"? If the New York Times reports it, and some state agency denies it, who do we trust? And what counts as a nation state? Are you saying that it has to be a federal government agency, or could it be a contractor? How does plausible deniability factor in, and who do you trust? For instance, suppose that I already knew the answer to this question with certainty - if I did, I would still have no idea how the market will resolve.

2 replies
firstuserhere avatar

@HartTraveller the discovery should be more than mere conjecture. Evidence that points towards it is a good sign.

In your example, if NYT reports with good evidence then that will very likely be considered regardless of the nation state's response, if any (this depends on the quality of such evidence of course).

Are you saying that it has to be a federal government agency, or could it be a contractor?

The point about contractors is good. Reminds me of Snowden's case. It has to be the national (federal) government and a contractor directly sponsored by the national government does count. The reason I mentioned nation-state is to rule out state- government agencies.

How does plausible deniability factor in, and who do you trust?

We'll discuss whatever evidence comes out and see accordingly. In case of slight doubt, market can be resolved to a high %, of course. I'm not betting in it because it may come down to subjective interpretation. But yes, I'll be happy to have a good discussion about the evidence and whether it counts.

For instance, suppose that I already knew the answer to this question with certainty - if I did, I would still have no idea how the market will resolve.

Feel free to ask whatever questions you have or share suggestions about the resolution. As others have said, it's more about whether we will find out about it than about whether this has happened/is happening.

CodeandSolder avatar
CodeandSolderpredicts YES
DavidMathers avatar
David Mathersbought Ṁ40 of NO

This already could have happened for more than

6 months, which on it's own would suggests odd of <50% by the end of the next 6 months. Although hype of and attention to LLMs has been growing, so that's probably a bit simplistic.

2 replies
CodeandSolder avatar
CodeandSolderpredicts YES

@DavidMathers it could have happened for way longer, GPT-3 finished training roughly 3 years ago and was good enough, and that's a commercial venture with a limited budget, not a state able to fill a warehouse with GPUs if they wanted to and not notice the cost

The question is if we'll find out about it

DavidMathers avatar
David Matherspredicts NO

@CodeandSolder Yeah, I meant us finding out could have happened.

ShadowyZephyr avatar

I think it will happen, maybe even already happening, but we will not find proof before the end of 2023.

firstuserhere avatar