Will Manifold reach 1500 DAU (7d average) sometime in July 2023?

107

Ṁ40K

Ṁ830

resolved Aug 1

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves YES as soon as Manifold reaches a 7-day average of at least 1500 Daily Active Users some time in July 2023

Resolves NO otherwise.

The data source will be the stats page! For reference, on May 3, i see 1032 DAU

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ7,808
2		Ṁ4,823
3		Ṁ3,300
4		Ṁ524
5		Ṁ405

24 Comments

31 Holders

173 Trades

Sort by:

predicted YES

This resolves YES. Totally surprised I must say. Fully expected this to resolve NO but bought some hopium YES that's paying off now lol.

boughtṀ100YES

@RobertCousineau Nice. Time for you to take a break until the next leagues season, no?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

This resolves yes! Go Manifold!

sold Ṁ21 of NO

@RobertCousineau ouch!!!

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Schwabilismus you have my sympathy!

predicted YES

@RobertCousineau Oh wow

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Oops, I guess I bought too little

predicted YES

@PC Next time will use limit orders

bought Ṁ25 of NO

1300 new users yesterday doesn’t seem enough since days before only had a couple hundred

bought Ṁ6 of YES

@parhizj The stats page hasn't been updated and there was a huge influx yesterday

predicted NO

@firstuserhere Yeah I have api script to count signups that’s what I’m referencing. I didn’t check the day yesterday though do you know what the daily DAU was yesterday?

bought Ṁ4 of YES

@parhizj I'm looking at this umami stats page

predicted NO

@firstuserhere Yeah that matches with the signup numbers. I just don’t think it’s enough based on my memory of what the numbers were .. maybe @PC has actual numbers?

predicted YES

@parhizj even if unlikely, at this price I'm not selling :p

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@firstuserhere

I take it back I checked the signups for the boom period they were 800 less than yesterday

predicted YES

anyone have the single day DAU from two days ago?

sold Ṁ120 of YES

@parhizj Think i jumped the gun. Looks implausible now after more calculations from what I could gather but I could be wrong lost a lot now 😭

@firstuserhere I had it right the first time. I am blaming lack of sleep and trying to do this while watching the fifa world cup at 3am. I even had good information that people couldn't get at the time, the number of signups: Number of users created between 2023-07-31T08:00:00+00:00 and 2023-08-01T08:00:00+00:00: 1432
1432 + the normal DAU of 800-900 is easily 1500.

Really bad that I got that wrong in my sleep addled state.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

The stats page is down and I cannot verify at the moment.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@Stralor opened this one as well.

@firstuserhere seems long odds but I'm here for long odds and good ratios

bought Ṁ50 of NO

The DAU for today (not 7day avg) is 1786.

I got this wrong in the other 1100 market... but I'll leave this here as reference:
(1500 * 7) - (1786 + 1731 + 1057 + 943 + 841 + 784) = 3358 needed for tomorrow, This scenario seems unlikely to happen tomorrow, but...

On average for the rest of July (Thanks to @ScipioFabius for this idea):

Only need 1957 on average for the next three days: (1957*3 + 1786 + 1057 + 943 + 841) / 7 ~= 1500

This seems unlikely from the current boom, but the boom may go up more tomorrow. I 'll keep in check today watching the DAU for today to see if rises.

predicted NO

Edit-deleted: 265 new users today as of 11 am if I have computed right (gathered from API).

Edit: Number of users created between 2023-07-28T08:00:00+00:00 and 2023-07-28T19:17:57.062785-04:00: 238

I've checked against the previous days signups to confirm the timezone for the signups window is correct now (they use Pacific Time midnight as cutoff for signups, I am assuming it is the same for DAU)