🏅 Top traders

Phew, we have a masters league and we're still around. But is it going to last? Let's find out in the next season of manifold leagues!

Hmmmm no signs of destruction so far on the AI side .. the leagues on the other hand still don't have prize info about Diamond league. 0.2 seems fair

Manifold should ban such markets, because prediction markets are motivation markets. Thus someone might decide to create an evil AI to win your market.

Also, it's a duty of each manifolder to buy YES position on this market to make creation of such AI unlikely.

20 days remain

@PseudonymousAlt honestly i just want it to be over with

@PseudonymousAlt Humanity, season 2, or both?

Laggy websites everywhere, imagine if that's what AI takeover begins to look like

JIC Season 2 of Manifold Leagues is expected to be finalized sometime during July 1st, 2023.

@firstuserhere How do you plan to resolve this market if Season 2 of Manifold Leagues gets cancelled?

@MayMeta irrelevant, there can always be a discussion about the cancellation and if humanity is here for it should resolve NO immediately

@deagol otherwise the AI can discuss whether this is YES or N/A

@deagol to clarify, a discussion, debate or watching of results does NOT need to happen for this to resolve NO, just that humanity is still around for it.

@deagol my point was that there's a far greater chance for the Manifold team to change something about the Season 2 of Leagues, than for Ai to wipe out humanity in the following 4 weeks. For example, Manifold team might decide that other features are more important rn, and Leagues Season 2 should be postponed to 2024. Then, the question becomes "Will AI wipe out humanity before [sometime 2024]", which raises my subjective probability.

I'm also interested in the pragmatic question of when should I expect to get my mana back, assuming that we survive 2023.

@MayMeta I think the chance of manifold changing something is still pretty low

@MayMeta ah ok gotcha. we may have to update our 2030 extinction models then with this short term rate increase? 🤔

@deagol Why would we have to, those markets are don’t change based on anything leagues/manifold related

@ShadowyZephyr but there might be arb going on pressuring the 2024 market, and that pressures the following year, and so on to 2100? I think it may be psychological, market dynamics, one of those for sure.

Insider info this time, guys?