I will consider Erdoğan to have lost if the Supreme Election Council says he has.
@xyz How do you envisage it being ambiguous? I'm happy to add in criteria to defend against the most plausible sources of ambiguity (>1% scenarios)
@finnhambly He might dispute the fact that he lost, arguing that the vote count was tampered with. He himself might alter the results of election and there might be international consensus that it indeed happened. He might die before the day his turn comes to an end. Given the current [lack of] market description, there are countless ways of how it could end up being ambiguous or N/A.
@MayMeta Nice, thanks! Clarifications:
- If the election council say he's lost, then that counts as a loss to me (regardless of what Erdogan says). If he refuses to give up power because of that dispute, this questions resolves negatively.
- If he successfully manipulates the vote count, I'll still consider him to have won the election for the purposes of this question. I've just added a market on the chances that he's seen to have manipulated the vote count:
I will clarify what counts as a loss in the question description.
@Duncn The question is on whether he will step down from the presidency on the day he is meant to. (Will he leave office? ≠ Will he leave the office?)