Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2024?

Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1% in 2023 (IEA), increasing 410 million tonnes (Mt) to reach a new record high of 37.4 billion tonnes (Gt).

Here is the graph for the past few years.

China alone grew around 565 Mt and some think it may be close to peak. Hence the world emissions outside of China decreased last year.

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2023 may have been much closer to zero (+0.1% in this recent article), current market seems quite low

Europe Q1 is not looking bad either

https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&c=EU&interval=quarter&quarter=1&year=-1 (still electricity)

Fossile down 17% yoy, now at 26% of total, the rest is up 8% with everyone contributing (hydro +19TWh, wind +13,, nuclear +6, solar +6).

This is just electricity demand but the drop in fossile fuel in the US is MASSIVE in March, especially coal.

via https://x.com/jdeely/status/1774930850557444171?s=20

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China does not look to be coming down just yet (elec up 11% in Jan-Feb), but let's wait until the end

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