Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?

Question

Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1% in 2023 (IEA), increasing 410 million tonnes (Mt) to reach a new record high of 37.4 billion tonnes (Gt).

Here is the graph for the past few years.

China alone grew around 565 Mt. China's growth was greater than the rest of the world's decrease but some think it may be close to peak.

Will 2026 emissions be lower than 2025?

This market will resolves based on IEA's numbers when released based on the actual change in CO2 emissions between the two years, no matter what extraordinary event (like COVID) may happen each year.

I have created the same market for 2024 and 2025, hope it helps adjust your bets!

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 43% chance (40 traders, as of Oct 4, 2026).