The international energy agency and others predicts that global carbon emissions will peak in 2025 and then start to decline. Do you think they're right? Will the world energy transition gain enough traction for this to become a reality? This bet will resolve based on the international energy agency's analysis of global emissions for 2025, which should be released in the first half of 2026.
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@MachiNi International energy agency's 'Global energy review 2025' released March 2026 mainly deals with 2024 emissions. Seems like we need details on 2026 emissions in order to see if 2025 has past peak. That might be available by around March 2028.
Maybe it is possible to resolve from finding in Global energy review 2025?
https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/5b169aa1-bc88-4c96-b828-aaa50406ba80/GlobalEnergyReview2025.pdf
Things like quotes below might be somewhat relevant but don't seem to directly get at the core issue of this question, but maybe there are more relevant quotes I haven't found.
Global electricity consumption rose by nearly 1 100 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024, more than twice the annual average increase over the past decade.
Rising global electricity use was driven by factors such as increasing cooling demand resulting from extreme temperatures, growing consumption by industry, the electrification of transport, and the expansion of the data centre sector.
Growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continues to decouple from global economic growth. Emissions growth slowed to 0.8% in 2024, while the global economy expanded by more than 3%.
Leave this question for another 18 months or maybe longer?
https://climateanalytics.org/publications/when-will-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-peak
"In this report, we find there is a 70% chance that emissions start falling in 2024 if current clean technology growth trends continue and some progress is made to cut non-CO2 emissions. This would make 2023 the year of peak emissions – meeting the IPCC deadline."
@adssx Here’s hoping! But time will tell. If the IEA reports that carbon emissions from all anthropogenic sources peak before 2025 then I will resolve to yes.
All sources or anthropogenic sources or just energy sector?
"Global carbon emissions from energy will peak in 2025"
suggests IEA is only talking about energy sector.
So it would appear things like concrete production, deforestation, vegetation decay, animal breathing etc are not involved. Please confirm.