Will any of the 89 Federal Subjects of Russia de facto leave Moscow's control before June 2026?

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before June 1, 2026 / January 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2035, 2050 any of the 89 Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation permanently or semi-permanently leaves the de facto control of the central government in Moscow.

The 89 Federal Subjects

This market encompasses all 89 regions currently claimed by the Russian Federation as defined in its constitution and listed here: Wikipedia: Federal subjects of Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia

(rus: Субъе́кты Росси́йской Федера́ции (субъекты федерации) - название территориальных единиц верхнего уровня - регионов в Российской Федерации. Согласно Конституции России, Российская Федерация является федеративным государством и состоит из 89 равноправных субъектов)

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Субъекты_Российской_Федерации https://ru.wikipedia.org/

Resolution Criteria

For a region to be considered as having "left in full from the control of Moscow," one of the following conditions must be met regarding the entirety (or effective entirety) of the region's claimed territory:

1. Control by Another Country: The region is fully occupied, annexed, or administered by the military or government of another sovereign nation (e.g., Ukraine takes the full administrative territory of a region), and the Russian Federation ceases to exercise governance (police, tax collection, courts) there.

2. Independence/Secession: The region declares independence and establishes effective sovereignty, preventing the Russian Federation from enforcing its laws or maintaining a military presence within the region's borders.

3. Russian Federation officially ceased to exist (repeat the history of USSR).

Clarifications on "De Facto Control" & "In Full"

• "In Full": The loss of control must be comprehensive. If the Russian Federation retains any part or a significant portion of the region's territory (e.g., >2%), the region has NOT left "in full."

• Temporary Loss: Short-term incursions, raids, or temporary occupations (lasting less than 7 days) do not count. The loss of control must be stable or recognized as the new status quo by credible international observers.

• De Jure vs. De Facto: International recognition of the separation is not required. The resolution is based solely on the reality of power on the ground.

  Resolution maps: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 ISW

Resolution Source

Resolution will be determined by consensus of credible reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN) and/or confirmation by unbiased conflict monitors (e.g., ISW ) indicating that Moscow no longer exercises control over the region.