Trump's rhetoric has had many commentators wondering if use of nuclear weapons is in the cards: [image]Any use of nuclear weapons in Iran by the US military while Trump is president will result in this market being resolved as YES. Otherwise NO.

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (36 traders, as of Apr 11, 2026).

Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027?

Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027?

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Trump's rhetoric has had many commentators wondering if use of nuclear weapons is in the cards:

Any use of nuclear weapons in Iran by the US military while Trump is president will result in this market being resolved as YES. Otherwise NO.

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opened a Ṁ50 NO at 9% order

If launched and intercepted before it enters Iran's borders, then resolves as...?

@Quroe NO, assuming no nuclear weapon ever reaches Iran