Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will there be a serious European cloud offering in 2028?
42
Ṁ300Ṁ3.5k
2028
22%
chance

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if by market close, April 30 2028, there exists at least one European cloud service provider that:

  1. Has at least 15% market share in the European cloud market

  2. Is headquartered in Europe with majority European ownership

  3. Offers a comprehensive suite of cloud services comparable to major providers (AWS, Azure, GCP)

The market resolves to NO if no European cloud provider meets these criteria by market close.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

https://nltimes.nl/2026/10/14/amsterdam-server-seized-request-us-authorities-antifa-allegations

wonder what the current limits are here? The US can declare any organisation "terrorist" and european providers will comply without question?

they're literally calling a european provider a terrorist organisation 🤣

so if a european provider doesn't comply with the demands of the US government, the US government labels that provider a terrorist organisation 🤔

EU launches major tech push to break US and China dependence | Euronews https://share.google/J3asvtyitRlI7eeJo

More steps in this direction, but I don't think it will change that fast: https://www.theregister.com/2026/02/04/estonia_hedges_its_bets_on/

EU banks should reduce their reliance on US Big Tech, top supervisor says – POLITICO https://share.google/RE1NL3ZCbVsIT5rK5

@256 I don't think that counts as "headquartered in Europe with majority European ownership".

bought Ṁ350 YES

@MalachiteEagle a laudable initiative, and a necessary step if Europe wants to survive. But I stand by my evaluation that not going to happen by 2028.
Just like Trump can't bring back manufacturing to the US without paying an enormous price for this to become possible things need to become MUCH worse than they are now.

I just noticed the AI generated description says end of 2028 but I had April 30 2028 in mind when I created it, I've changed the description to reflect intent, if you think this is unfair, I'll buy you out