Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?

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Dec 31

24%

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For the purposes of this market, “to introduce a domestic restriction on open-weight LLMs” means new federal action that removes or limits US citizens’ ability to develop, access, use, or modify one or more open-weight LLMs. “New” is relative to this market’s creation on June 13, 2026.

I will resolve to YES if, by the end of 2026, this occurs, is publicly reported, and is documented on this market. I will resolve to NO at the close of the market otherwise.

Update 2026-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A supply chain risk designation applied to an open-weight model (similar to the one applied to Claude) would not resolve this market YES. The market tracks new general restrictions on what Americans can do with open-weight LLMs, not restrictions limited to government/defense contractor usage.

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Let's say that a similar supply chain risk designation was given to an open weight models as was given to Claude would this be enough to resolve the market "yes"?

@nocap Good question. My understanding is that the chain risk designation only restricts whether the US government and defense contractors can use Anthropic’s models in covered contracts, right?

@CharlesFoster that is correct.

@nocap I intend for the market to track new general restrictions on what Americans can do with open-weight LLMs. Given that, I think a similar supply chain risk designation should not resolve this to YES.