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MANIFOLD
Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ45
2027
29%
chance

Resolves YES if, as displayed on December 31, 2027, the highest-ranked US-developed open-weights model on the LMArena text leaderboard (default "Overall" text view, lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is ranked above every China-developed open-weights model. Resolves NO otherwise (including if no US open-weights model is listed). - Open-weights model: weights publicly downloadable to self-host. API-only/proprietary models do not count. - US-developed labs include Google (Gemma), OpenAI (gpt-oss), Meta (Llama), NVIDIA (Nemotron), Microsoft (Phi), AI2 (OLMo), and any other US-headquartered org. - China-developed labs include DeepSeek, Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), Zhipu (GLM), and any other China-headquartered org. - Comparison is by leaderboard position among open-weights models only; only the standing on the resolution date counts (briefly leading earlier does not). - Source: LMArena text leaderboard. If it is discontinued or materially changes format, this resolves via the closest equivalent public, community-vote-based general-purpose LLM leaderboard, at the creator's reasonable discretion.

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