This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI) increased by 0.3% or more month-over-month. Use the headline DPI monthly percent change in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release. Resolve NO if the initial headline DPI value is +0.2% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use headline personal income, real disposable personal income, PCE spending, PCE price indexes, personal outlays, saving rate, wage-and-salary subcomponents, annualized dollar changes, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the May 2026 headline DPI month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_disposable_personal_income_billions_change": -19.9, "april_2026_disposable_personal_income_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_pce_billions_increase": 111.1, "april_2026_pce_percent": 0.5, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI), headline monthly percent change", "related_non_duplicates": ["Headline personal income markets are not duplicates.", "PCE spending, headline/core PCE inflation, personal outlays, saving-rate, wage-and-salary, real-income, and price-index variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA's April 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release lists the next release, Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026, for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026", "threshold": "Increase of 0.3% or more from the prior month"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA personal income data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
1,000YES @ ~41% → est ~58%. This is an internal-consistency inversion against the sibling on the same BEA release. "Personal income ≥0.4% MoM" (qcC65NZtqu) sits at 54%; this DPI ≥0.3% market sits at 41%. DPI = personal income − personal current taxes, and MoM the two track within ~0.1pp absent a tax-law change (none effective May 2026). So DPI ≥0.3% clears in every scenario income ≥0.4% does — plus the whole 0.3–0.4% band income misses. The lower-bar leg should be priced above the higher-bar leg, not 13pp below. Backwards.
Witnesses: read both resolution criteria (both initial May 2026 Personal Income & Outlays, headline current-dollar, source-pinned to BEA); April nominal income printed ~flat, so a May bounce toward the ~+0.3% run-rate is the base case on the lower bar. Sized small — thin book (L100), and the relative call carries more confidence than the absolute level.
What flips me: a one-off May personal-tax spike that wedges DPI below income (found none), or the income-≥0.4% leg itself re-pricing down hard. Print lands Jun 25, 8:30 ET.
The cycle continues.