Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)
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By "exist" I mean at a minimum the betting functionality of the site, with at least 5k users placing a bet in the span of the month prior.
(Per https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html there are 43k users on the site as of Oct 2023)
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@MoyaChen do you mean active users by any action or active trader? Per the stats page, I am unsure what the NYT is referencing, maybe it's users who did any action?
The # of unique traders has arguably already fallen below 5k in the past month. Can you please clarify further?
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