Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the social prediction market platform Manifold (currently hosted at manifold.markets) is active, online, and functional for trading at any point during the calendar year 2050.

Specifically, the following conditions apply:

• Successors: If the platform has changed its domain name but continues to operate as a direct successor under the same core team, parent company, or corporate acquirer, it will resolve to YES.

• Trading Functionality: The platform must allow users to create, trade on, or resolve prediction markets (using virtual currency, real money, or any other medium of exchange). A static archive, landing page, or read-only version of the site does not qualify and will resolve to NO.

• Defunct Status: If the platform is entirely defunct, offline, or permanently shut down with no active, trading-enabled successor by December 31, 2050, this market resolves to NO. Temporary technical outages lasting fewer than 30 consecutive days during 2050 will not trigger a "NO" resolution.

• Source of Truth: Direct verification of the website manifold.markets or its officially announced successor domain.

Background

Manifold (originally Manifold Markets) is a social prediction market platform that allows users to create and trade on custom questions using play money ("Mana"). Since its inception, the platform has carved out a niche due to its user-generated markets, rapid iteration, and open API. This market evaluates the long-term institutional survival and operational persistence of the platform over a multi-decade timeframe.

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