Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030? | Manifold

Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?

39

Ṁ1kṀ2.8k

2029

7%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

It will be resolved YES if a reliable source reports that Iran has fired a nuclear weapon at Israel (it doesn't matter where the launch was and it doesn't matter if the missile is intercepted on his way).

Market context

Israeli Weaponry

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A version of this market that's conditional on israel using nuclear weapons on Iran first would be interesting and much more likely (that market would be cancelled if israel doesn't use nuclear weapons)

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