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MANIFOLD
What will Reform UK's change in number of council seats in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections be?
1
Ṁ225Ṁ62
May 7
941 seats
expected
3%
Below 0
3%
0 - 99
3%
100 - 299
6%
300 - 599
23%
600 - 899
38%
900 - 1199
19%
1200 - 1500
5%
Above 1500

Resolves at (seats after - seats before). A negative resolution means that they lost seats, a positive resolution means that they gained seats.

Market context
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At the start of April there are about 20,000 seats, 1000 seats is 5% of that. Things are unusually turbulent this cycle, with a strong possibility of the government not being simply Labour or Conservative.