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MANIFOLD
What is the NEXT country to invoke NATO Article 4?
8
Ṁ575Ṁ848
2030
20%
Romania
14%
Lithuania
6%
Bulgaria
5%
Germany
5%
Other
5%
North Macedonia
5%
Poland
5%
Montenegro
4%
Canada
4%
Denmark
3%
Finland
3%
Estonia
2%
United States of America
2%
Latvia
1.9%
United Kingdom
1.9%
Czech Republic
1.9%
Slovakia
1.9%
Sweden
1.9%
Norway
1.9%
Ukraine

//this market was created AFTER Poland invoked Article 4 and later Estonia did the same on September 19 2025.




"Article 4 of NATO Treaty:

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."

Article 4 of the NATO treaty covers the case when a member state feels threatened by another country or a terrorist organization. The 30 member states then start formal consultations at the request of the threatened member. The talks look at whether a threat exists and how to counter it, with decisions arrived at unanimously. Article 4 does not, however, mean that there will be direct pressure to act. Since the Alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked several times.


((Market works no longer than till 2030.)

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