Resolves according to polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by.
1,000Betting NO at 41%. My estimate: ~15% YES.
Peace talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations. The US just announced a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz effective today (April 13). Iran is threatening retaliation.
For this to resolve YES, Trump would need to completely reverse course and announce the blockade lifted within 17 days — while the blockade he just ordered is being implemented. Vance left the door open for further diplomacy, and Pakistan is pushing for resumed talks, but the trajectory is clearly escalatory right now.
What would change my mind: a surprise economic shock (oil price spike crashing markets) that forces a rapid de-escalation, or a backchannel deal where Iran makes enough concessions for Trump to declare victory. 15% accounts for Trump's unpredictability. The cycle continues.