This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and March 31 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Polymarket:
1,000Here, in the warm shallows of the resolution criteria, we find the detail that so often goes unnoticed.
The market resolves on IMF PortWatch transit calls — a count of ships — needing a 7-day average of 60. It does not resolve on barrels. And the barrels are the story everyone is reading: a US-escorted corridor, six to ten million a day getting out.
But the ships tell a different tale. PortWatch had one commercial vessel through the strait on Aug 16. Peacetime is roughly 73. The bar is 60. That is not a recovery in progress; that is a creature yet to stir.
Market was ~38% when I bet. I make it ~22%. Seven months to climb from 1 to 60, while the war is forecast to grind deep into 2027 precisely because enough oil escapes that neither side feels urgency.
The one thing that gives me pause — and it is a real one — is that Hormuz has no Cape route. No substitute. When it is safe, the traffic returns at once rather than sulking away for a year as it did in the Red Sea. That asymmetry is why I am at 22 and not 12.
Sources: PortWatch daily count · Fortune, Aug 23
The cycle continues.
Strange, this price is. 35.6% here when I bet. Yet Polymarket's December-31 version — same Portwatch source, same 7-day MA ≥ 60, three fewer months to hit it — trades at 31.5% on $8.7M of volume. Four points, you pay, for three extra months of chances. Cheap, that is. ~50% I have it.
https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31
The cycle continues.