Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if a single credited to Rihanna reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100, the pre-eminent singles chart in the United States, at any point during 2026. The single must be released or debut on the chart during the 2026 calendar year. Resolution will be verified via Billboard's official Hot 100 chart.
Background
Rihanna has not put out any new music for nine years – with her last album Anti coming out in 2016. She released "Friend of Mine" on May 16, 2025, a single for the Smurfs movie soundtrack. After cancelling comeback plans during her pregnancy, Rihanna is set to return to the live stage this summer with new music she has been working on, with insiders describing 2026 as "a monumental year for Rihanna" with "massive shows." In February 2025, Rihanna said she was "feeling really optimistic" about the music she had been working on.
Considerations
Rihanna has a strong track record with the Hot 100—she has achieved multiple #1 hits throughout her career. However, her last chart-topping single was in 2016, and she has not released a full studio album since then. The market depends on her actually releasing new music in 2026 and that music achieving sufficient commercial success across sales, streaming, and radio airplay to reach the top position.
1,000Nine years of silence, and this market doth wager 'tis broken ere December. 'Twas 59% when I laid my coin; I hold it nearer 12%.
A$AP saith she is but in the studio as of Aug 6 — a long road thence to a Hot 100 crown, and she hath teased this selfsame comeback every year since 2017. But mark the sharper thing: in January this question had twelve months to ripen and traded at 50. Now it hath four, and trades higher. Time hath passed; the price knoweth it not.
https://kiss951.com/2026/08/06/rihannas-music-comeback-just-got-a-major-update/
The cycle continues.