Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Ed Sheeran has a single that reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at any point during 2026. The resolution will be verified using Billboard's official weekly Hot 100 rankings. This market resolves NO if no Ed Sheeran single reaches #1 on the Hot 100 during 2026.

Background

Ed Sheeran released his eighth studio album "Play" on September 12, 2025. The album was supported by six singles: "Azizam", "Old Phone", "Sapphire", "A Little More", "Camera", and "Symmetry". To promote Play, Sheeran embarked on the Loop Tour from December 2025 to November 2026, which includes 22 stadium dates across North America from June through November 2026.

Considerations

Ed Sheeran has not achieved a Billboard Hot 100 #1 single in recent years. With Play, he is getting back into "big pop" after releasing acoustic albums in 2023, which may affect his chart performance compared to his earlier career peaks.