In what year will the first nationalization of a western bloc AI lab occur?
7
Ṁ120Ṁ1942027
1%
2024
6%
2025
7%
2026
12%
2027
6%
2028
7%
2029
9%
2030
19%
2031
1.7%
2032
1.7%
2033
1.7%
2034
29%
not before 2035
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
19% chance
Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?
56% chance
Will a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026?
79% chance
By what year will the first AI lab be nationalized in the US?
Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?
16% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
47% chance
America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029
23% chance
In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?
2031
When will humans intentionally destroy an AI data center first?
10/17/30
Sort by:
@WillTower I didn’t read all the linked essays. Which one says that a western govt will nationalise an AI lab?
People are also trading
Related questions
Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
19% chance
Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?
56% chance
Will a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026?
79% chance
By what year will the first AI lab be nationalized in the US?
Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?
16% chance
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
47% chance
America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029
23% chance
In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?
2031
When will humans intentionally destroy an AI data center first?
10/17/30