I think we’re kind of overindexing on glasswing. They’ve mentioned safety techniques they’re testing with Opus before the Mythos release. I think this techniques will specifically nerf cyberattack capabilities. Assuming they work well, we could see a Mythos release sooner than later.

Anthropic just launched Glasswing because they think Mythos is too dangerous to give free access to.

Is it correct to say that preview does not count?

@MaxLennartson preview counts if it is released, it's the model ppl were expected to be called claude mythos as far as i'm concerned

@Bayesian What do you mean by ppl because the market (https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/will-anthropic-announce-something-a) “Will Anthropic Announce something about Claude Mythos before Monday April 13th?” just resolved yes.

Will Anthropic Announce something about Claude Mythos before Monday April 13th?

Resolved YES. Resolves yes if Anthropic makes some kind of announcement related to the rumored “Claude Mythos” before Monday April 13th (PST). The leaked blog post (m1astra-mythos.pages.dev) indicates the model will first be given to early testers before general release. This will resolve yes even if the name of the model is not “Claude Mythos” as long as it appears to be the same one in the leak. Update 2026-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market requires an announcement by Anthropic itself. A news article or third-party report about Anthropic — even from a reliable source — does not count as an announcement by Anthropic.

@MaxLennartson I'm saying that the model "Claude Mythos Preview" is basically the model people had in mind and were speculating about when they were talking about an upcoming model called Claude Mythos or Claude Capybara. Anthropic announced something about, but did not release, Claude Mythos, on April 7. Does that clarify

@MaxLennartson Just to clarify the release of Claude Mythos preview does not resolve this market?

@MaxLennartson no, the release of claude mythos preview does resolve this market. To clarify, claude mythos preview has not yet been released, but if it had, it would have caused the market to be resolved

https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing#:~:text=We%20do%20not%20plan%20to%20make%20Claude%20Mythos%20Preview%20generally%20available

"We do not plan to make Claude Mythos Preview generally available"

@2b3o4o not Claude Mythos Preview, but perhaps Claude Mythos...

I don’t see why they would release Mythos when opus 4.6 is killing it atm.

@Mochi mythos with much higher prices

According to Polymarket the current odds by April 30th are 50%

https://polymarket.com/event/claude-mythos-released-by

I found this X post that was interesting and has influenced me. https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/2037531591975518710

@MaxLennartson isn't the Q3 in that tweet probably just a misreading of 03?

https://x.com/user2138745/status/2037581277768069401

@rogs It could be a misreading but generally think that it is not a misreading. Anthropic also made clear that they are not doing a general release yet. Here is another market that I have looked at: https://polymarket.com/event/claude-mythos-released-by.

@MaxLennartson What do you mean it's not a misreading? Are you suggesting that the poster had independent information saying there'd be a Q3 release, which they didn't cite or link to at all in their post?

@rogs It looks like I might be partially incorrect. The document was referring to Claude Mythos Preview which it look like they were planning to release in March or early April. However, I don’t think they will do a general release until at least the third quarter.

Interesting.