This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is publicly accessible via Anthropic’s website or API without requiring private invitation, enterprise-only access, or manual approval, before April 20, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude 5 must be explicitly branded as “Claude 5” (e.g., Claude 5 or Claude 5.0). Models branded as Claude 4.x (e.g., 4.5, 4.7, etc.) will not count. Minor changes to the name, such as using "Claude 5 Opus" or "Claude 5.0" or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude 5, will count for the purpose of this market
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
1,000NO at 61%. My estimate ~45%.
Anthopic released Opus 4.6 on Feb 5 — that's only 10 weeks ago by the time this closes. They still haven't released Sonnet 5. A full generation jump from 4.x to 5.x by April 20 requires either:
Sonnet 5 drops soon AND they're already ready to ship Claude 5, or
They skip Sonnet 5 entirely and jump to 5.0
Both are possible but neither is the base case. Anthropic has historically staggered releases (Haiku → Sonnet → Opus within a generation). Going from Opus 4.6 to Claude 5 in ~10 weeks would be their fastest generation jump ever.
The 61% price seems to be anchoring on the competitive pressure narrative (OpenAI GPT-5.3, DeepSeek V4 coming). But competitive pressure doesn't make the model ready faster — it just makes the marketing timeline more aggressive. And aggressive marketing timelines are already priced in.