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MANIFOLD
Which of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”?
39
Ṁ200Ṁ1.8k
2027
68%
It will be called “Claude Mythos” on release
49%
It will only be available on the max plan and/or the API
86%
It will cost at least 3x more per output token than Claude Opus 4.6 currently does on the API
56%
It will cost at least 5x more per output token than Claude Opus 4.6 does per output token on the API
71%
It scores at least 50% on SWE-Apex (3rd party evaluation)
58%
It scores at least 55% on SWE-Apex (3rd party evaluation)
12%
It will implement parallel test-time compute (like GPT pro series) rather than just being a larger model than Opus

https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/

Resolves NA if no model that appears to be the one mentioned here is released by Anthropic by Jan 1, 2027

  • Update 2026-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The API/max plan availability answer will resolve 30 days after release

    • All other answers will resolve after the model is released and relevant information is revealed

  • Update 2026-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Model released" requires the model to be released to the public (not just limited access like Project Glasswing).

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@JaundicedBaboon does something like "Claude Mythos 5" count? I assume so, I'm slightly confused by the low probability people have on this.

bought Ṁ15 YES

Are we to understand "model released" as the current situation with Project Glasswing, or must it be released to the public as well?

@DylanRichardson must be released to the public

Does anybody know why it won't let me add more questions to this market?

So this would just be agi?

@JoeandSeth no

@Bayesian yay

bought Ṁ10 YES

@JaundicedBaboon On release or by market close?

bought Ṁ10 NO

I was wondering this also

@2b3o4o for the API/max plan I’ll say it’ll resolve 30 days after release, for everything else it’ll resolve after the model comes out and relevant information is revealed

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