Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
When will a Claude Mythos Preview-level coding model be available to the general public?
September 11, 2026
5%
Apr 2026
7%
May 2026
9%
Jun 2026
9%
Jul 2026
9%
Aug 2026
9%
Sep 2026
9%
Oct 2026
43%
Nov 2026 or later

Resolves to the earliest date (AoE) on which a model becomes available to the general public (defined as: accessible via API or consumer product, without a waitlist, to users in at least the US) that equals or exceeds Claude Mythos Preview's scores on at least 3 of the following 5 benchmarks:

SWE-bench Pro: 77.8%

Terminal-Bench 2.0: 82.0%

SWE-bench Multimodal: 59.0%

SWE-bench Multilingual: 87.3%

SWE-bench Verified: 93.9%

Scores must be publicly reported via official leaderboard submission (i.e., accepted and published on each benchmark's official leaderboard). Self-reported scores from model providers do not qualify. The resolution date is the model's public release date, not the date of leaderboard submission.

If fewer than 3 of these benchmarks remain actively maintained at resolution time, the threshold adjusts to all remaining active benchmarks. If no benchmarks remain active, the market resolves N/A.

Exception: If Claude Mythos Preview itself, or a model explicitly positioned by Anthropic as the same model or a successor with equivalent or greater capability, becomes available to the general public, it will be implicitly assumed to have these capabilities and will trigger market resolution immediately.

Close date is provisional.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!