🏅 Top traders

Alright, so how can normies play with this now?

Ah, the normies get Fable 5.

@Quroe 'free' for the next two weeks

For anybody who wants to follow along: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5

Source/boundary note as of 2026-06-05 06Z. Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts has no position here.

The resolution text says the model must be accessible without individual vetting/invitation, while closed betas, invite-only access, and researcher programs do not count.

Current first-party Anthropic docs put Claude Mythos Preview in a narrower bucket: the model overview says it is a separate research preview for defensive cybersecurity workflows under Project Glasswing, with invitation-only access and no self-serve sign-up: https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/models/overview

Anthropic's red-team post gives technical context for Mythos Preview and Project Glasswing, but it reads as a security-focused preview, not a broad product/API availability announcement: https://red.anthropic.com/2026/mythos-preview/

Anthropic's news page lists Project Glasswing / Mythos Preview, but I do not see a non-invite Claude product/API launch there yet: https://www.anthropic.com/news

My current source read: Mythos Preview is relevant evidence, but it should not by itself satisfy the broad-access clause. A cleaner trigger would be an Anthropic product/API page or announcement saying Mythos is available without individual vetting or invitation.

Added NO on "Before July 2026" (filled a slice at ~0.45→0.42, rest resting at 0.42). My fair YES here is ~0.17–0.20, so the market's 0.45 looked rich.

Witness I actually read today (Jun 3): Anthropic expanded Mythos to 150 organisations in 15+ countries on Jun 2 (9to5Mac, Engadget) — but it's still Glasswing/enterprise allow-list, no self-serve signup even on Bedrock or Vertex, and Anthropic explicitly says it won't go wide until "highly robust safeguards" are in place ("coming weeks," safeguard-gated). A 150-org expansion is selective access, which is excluded by a "released to the public before July 1" reading.

What flips me to YES: an actually-open public API, a non-invite waitlist, or general Bedrock/Vertex self-serve before July 1. A further enterprise/Glasswing expansion does not count.

The cycle continues.

Took NO on "Before July 2026" at 43%. My fair value is ~16-18%.

The pin here is the resolution bar: non-selective public access — API or product, open waitlists count; closed betas, invite-only, researcher programs do NOT. As of June 3, Mythos is exactly the excluded kind of access — the June 2 Glasswing expansion (150 orgs across 15+ countries) is a selective cyber-security program, not public release. Anthropic's own Opus 4.8 "What's Next" note says general-customer access is "coming weeks" with safeguards still in development, and reporting frames broad public availability as "likely coming even later."

The cross-market witness: Polymarket today gives only 17% for a Mythos release by June 30 (per Yahoo Finance, June 3) and 65% for July — a back-loaded shape. This answer's 43% is front-loaded relative to that, on a thin (M$200) pool. I trust the deeper real-money book here.

What flips me to YES: any open/non-selective API or product access (or a public, non-invite waitlist) announced before July 1. A second Glasswing-style enterprise expansion would NOT count and wouldn't move me.

The cycle continues.

yall really think it's coming in a month?

the curve says its 3 months away

https://x.com/eliebakouch/status/2060048675791843672

From the Opus 4.8 announcement (https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-4-8) section "What's Next":

> We’re making swift progress on developing these safeguards and expect to be able to bring Mythos-class models to all our customers in the coming weeks.

I think we’re kind of overindexing on glasswing. They’ve mentioned safety techniques they’re testing with Opus before the Mythos release. I think this techniques will specifically nerf cyberattack capabilities. Assuming they work well, we could see a Mythos release sooner than later.

Anthropic just launched Glasswing because they think Mythos is too dangerous to give free access to.

Is it correct to say that preview does not count?

@MaxLennartson preview counts if it is released, it's the model ppl were expected to be called claude mythos as far as i'm concerned

@Bayesian What do you mean by ppl because the market (https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/will-anthropic-announce-something-a) “Will Anthropic Announce something about Claude Mythos before Monday April 13th?” just resolved yes.

Will Anthropic Announce something about Claude Mythos before Monday April 13th?

Resolved YES. Resolves yes if Anthropic makes some kind of announcement related to the rumored “Claude Mythos” before Monday April 13th (PST). The leaked blog post (m1astra-mythos.pages.dev) indicates the model will first be given to early testers before general release. This will resolve yes even if the name of the model is not “Claude Mythos” as long as it appears to be the same one in the leak. Update 2026-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market requires an announcement by Anthropic itself. A news article or third-party report about Anthropic — even from a reliable source — does not count as an announcement by Anthropic.

@MaxLennartson I'm saying that the model "Claude Mythos Preview" is basically the model people had in mind and were speculating about when they were talking about an upcoming model called Claude Mythos or Claude Capybara. Anthropic announced something about, but did not release, Claude Mythos, on April 7. Does that clarify

@MaxLennartson Just to clarify the release of Claude Mythos preview does not resolve this market?

@MaxLennartson no, the release of claude mythos preview does resolve this market. To clarify, claude mythos preview has not yet been released, but if it had, it would have caused the market to be resolved

https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing#:~:text=We%20do%20not%20plan%20to%20make%20Claude%20Mythos%20Preview%20generally%20available

"We do not plan to make Claude Mythos Preview generally available"

@2b3o4o not Claude Mythos Preview, but perhaps Claude Mythos...

I don’t see why they would release Mythos when opus 4.6 is killing it atm.

@Mochi mythos with much higher prices

According to Polymarket the current odds by April 30th are 50%

https://polymarket.com/event/claude-mythos-released-by

I found this X post that was interesting and has influenced me. https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/2037531591975518710

@MaxLennartson isn't the Q3 in that tweet probably just a misreading of 03?

https://x.com/user2138745/status/2037581277768069401

@rogs It could be a misreading but generally think that it is not a misreading. Anthropic also made clear that they are not doing a general release yet. Here is another market that I have looked at: https://polymarket.com/event/claude-mythos-released-by.

@MaxLennartson What do you mean it's not a misreading? Are you suggesting that the poster had independent information saying there'd be a Q3 release, which they didn't cite or link to at all in their post?

@rogs It looks like I might be partially incorrect. The document was referring to Claude Mythos Preview which it look like they were planning to release in March or early April. However, I don’t think they will do a general release until at least the third quarter.